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Posted To: MBS CommentaryIt's one thing to HOPE that any particular selling spree in bond markets is merely the product of a few temporary events that can be easily explained away. It's another thing to actually bank on it. I don't ever flat-out recommend that you disregard seemingly significant market movements. But if it's a Friday or Monday in the summertime, if trading is light, if the biggest part of the move happens in the afternoon, and if the news being blamed for the move doesn't seem particularly "new," then I will say you can at least hold out some hope that the selling-spree might not be the harbinger of doom it initially seems to be. Still, no matter what I say, it's impossible to see the weakness we saw on Friday and be completely at ease that it was all part of the plan...(read more)
Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchMortgage Rates were briefly at their highest levels in several weeks on Friday afternoon. This followed comments from the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium. Markets interpreted those comments as the Fed being more likely to hike rates in 2016--possibly even twice! While mortgage rates are based on MBS (mortgage-backed-securities), as opposed to the Fed Funds Rate (the thing the Fed is talking about hiking), if investors think the Fed is more likely to hike, MBS tend to lose some ground. Friday was made all the more "spooky" by the fact that much of the drama was transpiring in the afternoon on a summertime Friday. That may not sound too spooky , but for investors who are used to having lots of other investors to trade/buy/sell with, the comparative ghost town of a summertime Friday afternoon can...(read more)
Posted To: MND NewsWireA large contingent of new homes started in 2015 were purchased using non-conventional financing according to a new analysis by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). The association's Assistant Vice President for Housing Policy Research, Natalia Siniavskaia writes that more than a third (34.4 percent) of newly constructed homes started last year did not use conventional financing . This includes purchases using all cash, FHA, VA, and Rural Housing Service (USDA) loans. Siniavskaia used the U.S Census Bureau Survey of Construction (SOC) data and found that the use of non-conventional financing varied widely across census divisions, from a low of 16 percent of new home purchases in the East South Central division (Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Kentucky) to 40 percent in both...(read more)