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Posted To: MBS CommentaryBond markets began the day in slightly weaker territory, with Treasuries following European yields higher in the overnight session. Domestic hours brought more selling pressure out of the gate with Q1 wage growth coming in higher than expected. There were also some counterpoints in the GDP data that made the 0.7 vs 1.2 result look more palatable. Namely, inventories cut 0.9% from the GDP headline. That means GDP would have come in at 1.6 vs 1.2 with a neutral inventory build. Finally, the PCE and core PCE components of the GDP report were downright unfriendly to bonds. PCE was up 2.4% vs 2.0% previously and core PCE came in at 2.0% vs 1.3% previously. Those are pretty massive swings in inflation metrics--certainly enough to convince a few traders of a faster Fed rate hike timeline. Perhaps...(read more)
Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchMortgage rates were unchanged today, holding onto modest improvements seen yesterday. In many ways, the past 2 days have confirmed that rates are in limbo near the lower end of the post-election range. To be sure, they were definitively lower in mid-April, but they're much closer to recent lows than highs. More importantly, current levels have acted as a line in the sand that divides the year's lowest rates from everything else. In other words, we'd really like to remain in this zone. Whether or not that's possible may depend on next week's Fed Announcement (Wednesday afternoon). While the Fed isn't expected to hike rates this time around, investors will nonetheless attempt to pick up on clues about future policy potential. The average lender continues offering conventional 30yr fixed rates...(read more)
Posted To: MND NewsWireHere we go again? Sam Khater, CoreLogic's deputy chief economist, says loan performance is beginning to show some cracks in what has been a near perfect veneer. This might be an early signal of a downturn in the credit cycle. Khater is not issuing a warning, merely alerting those who should be watching such things to pay attention. He writes, in an article in the CoreLogic Insights blog, that a typical economic expansion and recession are strongly driven by loan performance. When times are good, lenders take on more marginal borrowers then tend to become more conservative when loan performance begins to deteriorate. That often exacerbates an economic downturn. Loan performance across the four major types of loans (agricultural, business, personal consumption, and real estate) all improved throughout...(read more)