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Posted To: MBS CommentaryGranted, we might wake up next Tuesday (markets are closed Monday) to find that bonds are quickly breaking out of the recent range. But as for this week, the 2.34%-2.42% range in 10yr yields remained intact. There were several solid attempts made to break below 2.34%, but none of them stuck. Technicians are most interested in the 3pm CME close as a marking time for long-term charts, and we were never below 2.34% at 3pm. Then today, rates shot right up to the higher side of the range following this morning's data, effectively putting an exclamation point on the rejection of a 2.34% breakout. At issue was the fact that several inflation metrics were stronger than expected. Retail Sales probably took the lion's share of the blame, with the thought being that traders were prepared for it...(read more)
Posted To: Mortgage Rate WatchMortgage rates moved higher today , even after many lenders offered mid-day improvements in the afternoon. Bond markets (which underlie rate movement) reacted negatively to this morning's economic data. The biggest report of the morning--Retail Sales--was slightly weaker than the median forecast. Typically, this would HELP rates. But some traders were expecting the number to be even weaker compared to the forecast (yes, this is like a forecast of a a forecast). In separate data, several inflation metrics came in stronger than expected. Given the fact that markets are fairly worried that inflation will pick up under the Trump administration, it's not unfair to expect rates to react when data suggests inflation (or inflation expectations) may already be moving higher. 4.125% is still the most...(read more)
Posted To: MND NewsWireThe surprise reduction in FHA annual premiums announced last week by the current Secretary of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) may not survive long into the new administration. Ben Carson, M.D. President-elect Donald Trump's pick to head HUD, said at his confirmation hearing on Thursday that he would consider reversing the cut, which current Secretary Julian Castro said would save the average FHA borrower around $500 per year. "Certainly, if confirmed, I am going to work with the FHA administrator and other financial experts to really examine that policy," Carson said. Carson, himself a former presidential candidate, appeared before the Senate Banking Committee to present the case for his confirmation. In his revised opening statement, Carson, a pediatric neurosurgeon, said there is a "strong...(read more)